The 2026 renewal wall, in one report.
A wave of Canadian mortgages signed at pandemic-era lows renews this year at materially higher rates. We sized the payment shock — nationally, and by region.
Average payment increase at renewal, by region
Modelled increase for a borrower renewing a 5-year term signed in 2021, at 2026 rates. Illustrative.
| Original term signed | Then | Renewing at | Payment change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-yr fixed, 2021 | 1.94% | 4.09% | ▲ +24% |
| 5-yr variable, 2021 | 1.45% | 4.95% | ▲ +31% |
| 3-yr fixed, 2023 | 5.24% | 4.24% | ▼ −8% |
| 2-yr fixed, 2024 | 5.79% | 4.79% | ▼ −7% |
Modelled figures for illustration, built from representative posted rates and standard amortization assumptions — not a forecast or an offer. Individual outcomes vary by balance, term and lender. Borrowers renewing off 2023–24 highs may see decreases; those off 2021 lows see the sharpest increases.
What it means
The renewal wall isn't uniform. Borrowers who locked in during 2021 face the steepest jump; those who signed shorter terms at the 2023–24 peak are actually renewing down. The lesson isn't panic — it's that renewal is the moment to shop, not to auto-sign.
Across every region we modelled, the single largest lever a renewing household controls is whether they accept the first offer or compare it. On the average GTA balance, moving 0.40% at renewal is worth more than a year of the payment increase itself.
Enter your balance and offer to see your renewal shock — and whether switching beats it.